TORONTO — International tourism is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels, according to the first UNWTO World Tourism Barometer of the year.
International tourism ended 2023 at 88% of pre-pandemic levels, with an estimated 1.3 billion international arrivals. A full recovery is anticipated by the end of 2024, due in large part to the unleashing of remaining pent-up demand, increased air connectivity and a stronger recovery of Asian markets and destinations.
The Middle East led recovery in 2023 as the only region to overcome pre-pandemic levels, with arrivals 22% above 2019. Europe, the world’s most visited region, reached 94% of 2019 levels. Several destinations, including both large destinations and small/emerging ones, reported double-digit growth in international arrivals in 2023 when compared to 2019. Four sub-regions exceeded their 2019 levels, including Southern Mediterranean Europe, Caribbean, Central America, and North Africa.
“The latest UNWTO data underscores tourism’s resilience and rapid recovery, with pre-pandemic numbers expected by the end of 2024,” said UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili. “The rebound is already having a significant impact on economies, jobs, growth and opportunities for communities everywhere. These numbers also recall the critical task of progressing sustainability and inclusion in tourism development.
LOOKING AHEAD TO 2024
International tourism is expected to fully recover pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with initial estimates pointing to 2% growth above 2019 levels.
The positive outlook is reflected in the latest UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index survey, with 67% of tourism professionals indicating better or much better prospects for 2024 compared to 2023. Some 28% expect similar performance, while only 6% expect tourism performance in 2024 to be worse than last year. Key considerations include:
- There is still significant room for recovery across Asia. The reopening of several source markets and destinations will boost recovery in the region and globally.
- Chinese outbound and inbound tourism is expected to accelerate in 2024, due to visa facilitation and improved air capacity. China is applying visa-free travel for citizens of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Malaysia for a year to 30 November 2024.
- Visa and travel facilitation measures will promote travel to and around the Middle East and Africa with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to implement a unified tourist visa, similar to the Schengen visa, and measures to facilitate intra-African travel in Kenya and Rwanda.
- Europe is expected to drive results again in 2024. In March, Romania and Bulgaria will join the Schengen area of free movement, and Paris will host the Summer Olympics in July and August.
- Strong travel from the United States, backed by a strong US dollar, will continue to benefit destinations in the Americas and beyond. As in 2023, robust source markets in Europe, the Americas and the Middle East, will continue to fuel tourism flows and spending around the world.
- Economic and geopolitical headwinds continue to pose significant challenges to the sustained recovery of international tourism and confidence levels. Persisting inflation, high interest rates, volatile oil prices and disruptions to trade can continue to impact transport and accommodations costs in 2024.
- Against this backdrop, tourists are expected to increasingly seek value for money and travel closer to home. Sustainable practices and adaptability will also play an increasing role in consumer choice.
- Staff shortages remain a critical issue, as tourism businesses face a shortfall in labor to cope with high demand.
- The evolution of the Hamas-Israel conflict may disrupt travel in the Middle East and impact traveler confidence. Uncertainty derived from the Russian aggression against Ukraine as well as other mounting geopolitical tensions, continue to weigh on confidence.
