TORONTO – IATA’s Air Passenger Market Analysis report for May 2016 revealed that the market has made a “robust start to 2016” so far although, admittedly, the 6.0% year-on-year increase in industry-wide revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) in the first five months of the year was due in part to the leap year.

However, even after correcting for the extra day in February, IATA estimated that traffic still grew by 5.3% this year to date, in line with the average pace seen over the past decade.

It’s not all good news though. Following a bumper year in 2015, there are ongoing signs that passenger growth has shifted down a gear, with annual growth in RPKs remaining unchanged at 4.6% in May, its slowest pace since January 2015. This can be attributed partly to the Brussels terrorist attacks, which affected the large international European market in April and May.

European carriers’ international traffic still shows signs of being affected by the attacks, although as is usually the case following such shocking events, IATA expects traffic to recover somewhat over the coming months. That said, uncertainty in the post-Brexit world is likely to his this region the hardest in the next few months.

All told, while seasonally adjusted passenger volumes picked up in May, the upward trend in RPKs has eased since January. The market has grown at an annualized rate of around 4% since the start of the year.

Looking ahead, further stimulus is likely to come through in the form of lower fares from prior falls in oil prices. But this impact is likely to wane over the course of the year.