When IATA made its first airline passenger number predictions based on its then-new IATA Passenger Forecasting service, the pandemic would have been an unthinkable shadow on an otherwise sunny horizon.
The headline for this edition of ‘It Happened This Week’ is: ‘Airline passenger numbers to more than double in next 20 years to 7.3 billion’
The projected 7.3 billion passenger stat was for 2034, which was 20 years off when this headline ran. IATA based its projections on 4.1% average annual growth in demand. The year this story appeared, some 3.3 billion passengers took to the skies.
The IATA Passenger Forecasting service analyzes passenger flows across 4,000 country pairs, estimating demand based on living standards, population and demographics, and price and availability.
With passenger numbers expected to double in 20 years, and then some, “if you think flying is a hassle now, just wait a couple of decades,” said Travelweek at the time.
Of course, not even the most sophisticated forecasting tech could have predicted the pandemic. After a high of 4.5 billion travellers in 2019, the world’s airlines saw a 60% drop in passenger numbers in 2020 vs. 2019, to 1.8 billion. With a strong recovery now fuelling the industry, IATA expects 4.35 billion people will fly in 2023 – almost back to 2019 levels.
Will IATA see its 7.3 billion prediction realized in 2034? We’ll have to wait to find out.
Did the headline appear in Travelweek in 1979, 1992 or 2014?
Fill out the contest form below, with your guess and your email address. We’ll announce the answer and the winner next week, along with the next contest headline. Last week’s contest headline about Sunwing’s acquisition of Signature Vacations, and Robbie Goldberg’s new tour operator, ran in October 2009. Our winner for Week #33 is Samantha Finnie, a Virtuoso travel advisor with Direct Travel in B.C. Congratulations Samantha!
Every Wednesday in Travelweek Daily, we’re posting an article from Travelweek’s archives, spanning the years 1973 – 2023. Guess the correct year the story ran, and you could win a $50 Amazon gift card. There’s a new headline and a new chance to win every single week.
